Over the weekend of 19-21 July 2026, Kazakhstan was forced to stop pumping crude to its main export outlet on Russia's Black Sea coast after a series of drone strikes on tankers at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal near Novorossiysk. Tanker operators, spooked by hits on the vessels Asia, Nelsa and Nissos Ios, stopped calling at the port.
The scale is not a distant story for Italy. The CPC normally moves around 1.3-1.6 million barrels a day, more than 1% of world supply and over 80% of everything Kazakhstan exports. Kazakhstan alone accounts for about 12% of the EU's crude imports.
Why Italy is on the front line
Of every country on our map, Italy is Europe's biggest buyer of Kazakh CPC Blend. It is a light, low-sulfur crude, ideal for Mediterranean refineries, and Italy has plenty of them: from Sardinia to Sicily, Italy's coastal plants regularly process barrels shipped from Novorossiysk. It is the very crude now stuck behind the Black Sea halt.
But before anyone panics at the pump
A halt at the loading terminal is not the same as refineries running dry. Refiners hold weeks of crude in stock and can lift alternative grades (Azeri, Iraqi, Saudi) through the same Black Sea and Mediterranean terminals.
And crude is only about a third of what you pay at an Italian pump. Excise duties and 22% VAT make up more than half the price, with distribution and retail margin on top. So even a sustained rise in the crude price feeds through slowly and in diluted form, cents per litre, and with a lag of weeks.
Where Italy stands right now
As of 22 July 2026, petrol averages 1.99 €/L and diesel 2.15 €/L, against an EU average of 1.88 €/L and 1.95 €/L. Here is how Italy compares with the neighbours we track:
| Country | Gasoline (€/L) | Diesel (€/L) |
|---|---|---|
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 1.99 | 2.15 |
| 🇫🇷 France | 2.03 | 2.14 |
| 🇦🇹 Austria | 1.86 | 1.98 |
| 🇸🇮 Slovenia | 1.66 | 1.86 |
| 🇭🇷 Croatia | 1.74 | 1.97 |
Live national averages, cheapest per fuel in bold.
What to watch
The real question is how long the terminal stays shut. A few days is noise, absorbed by inventories. Weeks would start to tighten Black Sea and Mediterranean crude and nudge wholesale diesel across the region, Italy included. We will track it the only honest way, through the price you actually see at the pump.
Petromap follows Italian stations live. Check the live map for the cheapest fuel near you, or the Italy country page for today's national and city averages. If diesel moves in the coming weeks, you will see it here first.